Saturday 17 April 2021

Why Options Trading Is Must In Stock Market To Tackle COVID-19 Uncertainties !!!

Bouts of volatility and uncertainty come with opportunities. Especially lucrative enough to get the long-term investors glued to the screen for attractive prices.

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It has been more than a year now since we have been overwhelmed by this global pandemic. The highs and lows are part of the equity market and so are the bouts of volatility. However, today's headline-driven market has lost significance of data analytics and has thrown the predictive models under the bus.

But there is one thing for sure about bouts of volatility. Such bouts of volatility and uncertainty come with opportunities. Especially lucrative enough to get the long-term investors glued to the screen for attractive prices.

However, such bouts could trap some of the crucial portions of investable capital for a long time if one wrong call is made. Hence, it is quintessential in such an unpredictable market to introduce Options in our investment portfolios.

We have talked about how traders optimize the equity Options to modify their risk profiles and amplify their returns but let us revisit Options' utility for investors, who could be interested in modifying the price profile of their invested stocks at least for a while (till the dust settles).

Here we will focus on how a set of intentions of an investor can be monetized using equity options. But before we go any further let us revisit the four option transactions, what would they essentially mean:

A. Buying a Put would entail a Choice to Sell a Stock 

B. Buying a Call would entail a Choice to Buy a Stock 

C. Selling a Put would entail Obligation to Buy a Stock

D. Selling a Call would entail Obligation to Sell a Stock

Two additional notables.

Firstly, all aforementioned transactions would happen at a predefined price point for the stock a.k.a Strike Price.

Secondly the cost, while buying options would be onetime cost of Premium, selling options would require margin (portion of entire transaction value) to be deposited upfront but with a small receipt of premium.

Let us see how these Option trades can be embedded into investment activity to improve our efforts of dealing with uncertainty.

1. With the existing uncertainty-led volatility there would definitely come a fear of losing wealth in stock if it is at an attractive price led by deep cuts gets even deeper, let us understand how Options can help investors take care of this fear.

Use the transaction A (as outlined above) and Buy a Put of a Strike Price below which one would not be comfortable holding the stock. In case the stock falls below the strike upon expiry we have a choice to sell the stock at strike price.

Alternatively, one may also Buy a Call (Transaction B) instead, now one gets the choice to buy the stock on the day of expiry. Exercise the choice if the stock ends up above the Strike Price upon expiry. But in case if the stock were to fall further, just don't buy it.

Cost would be Premium (3-5 percent of the stock price). Put Option will protect the investor against any fall below the strike price at the end of expiry. Call Option Premium is paid to buy a comfort of getting in only if turns out to be a money maker.

Lastly transactions C&D involve selling of Options where comes a commitment but still if in case one wishes to sell a stock at a predefined price and wouldn't want anything more than what the stock has to offer -  resort to transaction D and Sell a Call of the Strike Price at which one wishes to sell the stock.

Transaction D would require margin but that could partially be covered with the stock holding or earmarked capital for a further Buy.

Transactions A&B are protection mechanism and in today's situation a must have addition to every investment activity undertaken.

Tuesday 13 April 2021

Monday 12 April 2021

New Cases Of Corona Rising, Increased Investor Concern !!!

The sentiment of the stock market is deteriorating due to the ever increasing cases of Corona. Due to this, the market has seen a lot of ups and downs in the past week. However, the RBI kept interest rates at a constant rate for the fifth time in the last week, leading to a recovery in the market. But the lockdown put pressure on banking stocks and the overall market declined. Today Sensex lost 1707 points to end at 47883 and the Nifty was down 524 points at 14310. The Bank Nifty index dropped 1656 points to 30792. However, midcap and smallcap sectors have given tremendous returns to investors. The IT and pharma sectors witnessed strong buying due to the constantly weakening rupee against the US dollar. Both indices gained 4-6% in the past week.

In terms of overall market, there is a possibility of huge market volatility in the medium term. There are two main reasons for this, the March quarter results and new cases of corona epidemic. In such a situation, shopping in select sectors may fall in some. In this, IT and banking shares can be in focus.

Five big events will be very important for investors this week...

Fourth quarter results of 2020-21: Today, IT sector giant TCS came out with quarterly results. With this, the fourth quarter results will start coming. About 21 companies, including Infosys, Wipro, HDFC Bank, Mindtree, Hathaway Bhavani, HDIL, Lloyd Metal, will present quarterly results this week.

New corona cases and lockdown status: Corona was confirmed in one lakh 52 thousand 565 people in the country on Saturday. For the first time since the onset of the epidemic, so many infected have been identified in a single day. In the last 24 hours, 90,328 people recovered and 838 people died. The recovery rate has also come down to close to 90%, which was 93.3% on Friday. At the same time, 100 million people have been vaccinated in the country so far.

Lockdown is being imposed in major states of the country to prevent the infection of Corona. Kerala states including Maharashtra, UP, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat have night curfew and total lockdown.

The impact of the lockdown on the banking sector: The banking sector is being severely affected by lock-in-place and increasing strictures in major states. Because this is affecting the quality asset of the bank. Meaning other banking businesses including debt collection will be completely affected. The result of this was that the bank index lost more than 4% last week. It may fall even further with increasing hardening. This will affect the sentiment of the overall market.

Domestic economy data will come: On Monday of this week, economy data will also come. It will release data on industrial production for the month of February and retail inflation for March, while on Wednesday the government will release the data of wholesale inflation. In January, industrial production fell 1.6% due to a decline in the manufacturing and mining sector. At the same time, retail inflation rose to 5.03% in February from 4.06% in January, due to the rise in food prices. Similarly, trade data will be made public on Thursday and Foreign Reserve Exchange data on Friday.

The rupee will keep an eye on the move: The rupee has weakened by 161 paise against the dollar due to rising new cases of corona, spending on vaccine and RBI's plan to buy bonds. Now the price of one US dollar has been increased to 74.43 rupees. The rupee came to this level on November 4, 2019. According to market analysts, in the next few days, the rupee may again see a strength. Because the US Fed Reserve's Monetary Policy meeting is going to happen soon.

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