What the Option Market Can Tell You about that Stock You Love

For an investor who understands how to read the option market’s tea leaves, investing becomes like playing poker with an opponent who always holds his hand face up. This might seem too good to be true, but in fact, option prices contain within them the market’s consensus estimates for the future price of a stock. If you know where to look, you can easily decide if the market’s consensus price for a stock is near or far from your own idea of its value. Value investors who revel in finding differences between stock prices and intrinsic values will love what the option market can tell them about future expectations for stocks.

What Option Can Tell an Intelligent Investor?
Option pricing models are, first and foremost, statistical models of how stocks are likely to move in the future. The option pricing bit is almost an afterthought once the hard work of stock price forecasting is done. all option pricing models under the general term “Black-Scholes Model” or “BSM.” All subsequent models are basically tweaks of the BSM, in fact.) For all the mathematical complexity people associate with option pricing, it’s actually a pretty blunt tool. It’s based on a few, almost laughably simple assumptions:
1.       The market is “efficient”, so a stock’s market price represents its true value.
2.      Stock prices drift upward at the same rate as the rate of return for risk-free bonds.
3.      New positive and negative information relevant to the stock’s price comes in randomly, so the stock is as likely to go up as it is to go down.
4.      Stock returns follow a bell curve distribution.

 

HOW TO BUY OPTIONS

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Puts, calls, strike price, in-the-money, out-of-the-money — buying and selling stock options isn't just new territory for many investors, it's a whole new language.
Options are often seen as fast-moving, fast-money trades. Certainly options can be aggressive plays; they're volatile, levered and speculative. Options and other derivative securities have made fortunes and ruined them. Options are sharp tools, and you need to know how to use them without abusing them.
Stock options give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell shares at a set dollar amount the "strike price" before a specific expiration date. When a "call" option hits its strike price, the stock can be called away. Conversely, with a "put" option the shares can be sold, or "put," to someone else. The value of puts and calls depends on the direction you think a stock or the market is heading. Stated simply, calls are bullish; puts are bearish.

What is the difference between options and futures?

The main fundamental difference between options and futures lies in the obligations they put on their buyers and sellers. An option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation to buy (or sell) a certain asset at a specific price at any time during the life of the contract. A futures contract gives the buyer the obligation to purchase a specific asset, and the seller to sell and deliver that asset at a specific future date, unless the holder's position is closed prior to expiration.
Another key difference between options and futures is the size of the underlying position. Generally, the underlying position is much larger for futures contracts, and the obligation to buy or sell this certain amount at a given price makes futures more risky for the inexperienced investor.

The difference between futures and options as financial instruments depict different profit pictures for parties. The gain in the option trading can be obtained in certain different manners. On the contrary, the gain in the future trading is automatically linked to the daily fluctuations in the market. This is to say that the value of profit positions for investors is dependent upon the market position at the close of the trading every day. Therefore, every investor should have a prior knowledge of both futures and options before they enter the financial market operations.

1. A future is a contract which is governed by a pre-determined price for selling and buying at a future period. In options, there is the right to sell or purchase of underlying assets without any obligation.
2. A future trading has open risk. The risk in option is limited.
3. The size of the underlying stock is usually huge in future trading. Option trading is of normal size.
4. Futures need no advance payment. Options have the advance payment system of premiums