OPTION TRADING TIPS: 2024-01-21

Thursday, 25 January 2024

Previewing India's Interim Budget 1 Feb 2024: Market Trends, Expectations, and Strategies

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Interim Budget for the financial year 2024-2025 (FY25) on February 1. Given that this upcoming Budget is a Vote on Account rather than a comprehensive Budget preceding the General Elections, major announcements are not anticipated on Budget Day. Experts suggest that this might not be a significant event for the markets, as a full-fledged Budget is expected after the government formation. However, the government's focus is likely to be on deficit reduction, promoting manufacturing, and investing in infrastructure. Traders are advised to consider the market trend leading up to the Budget and adjust their strategies accordingly. While intraday volatility is expected, it may be less pronounced than during a normal Budget. If the Budget emphasizes increased capital expenditure, railway and defense spending, there could be a mild rise in indices during the event. With the ongoing quarterly results season and the Budget approaching, market volatility remains elevated. Given that General Elections are scheduled for May 2024, this Budget will be interim in nature. While major announcements are not anticipated, the government may introduce popular measures such as increased funding for programs like MNREGA to boost rural earnings and stimulate the rural economy. The introduction of subsidies is also a possibility.Expectations are that the Budget will support sustainable economic development by investing in infrastructure and bolstering the manufacturing sector, aligning with the "Make in India" campaign. The Budget is also likely to further the government's commitment to transitioning towards a greener economy, focusing on renewable energy (such as solar and wind), biofuels (including biogas, ethanol, and green hydrogen), and electric transport.Historically, markets have experienced volatility leading up to the Budget, and the outcomes have influenced market movements. Therefore, traders are advised to exercise caution, book profits, and wait until after the Budget for long-term decisions. Implementing strict stop-loss measures is crucial to mitigate the impact of potential volatility on profits.