HOW THE IRON CONDOR TRADER EARNS MONEY
Every option strategy comes with
the possibility of earning a profit. There is also the possibility of losing
money -- and that represents the risk of trading. Whenever you initiate a
trade, you should have some expectation of the likelihood of incurring a loss
when seeking the potential reward.
Most traders have a market bias
-- they initiate a trade when expecting that the overall stock market (or at
least the price of the individual stock being traded) will move higher or
lower. Such traders adopt a bullish or bearish strategy.
Other traders have no specific
bias. They look at the market in one of two ways:
·
They have no opinion on market direction and by default,
adopt market-neutral strategies.
·
They expect a non-volatile, non-directional market and elect to
adopt market-neutral strategies.
The iron condor is one
such strategy.
Definitions
·
Bullish Strategy: Earns a profit for the trader when the market
moves higher.
·
Bearish Strategy: Earns a profit when the market declines.
·
Market-neutral Strategy: Earns a profit when the market trades
in a relatively narrow range and all rallies and declines are small.
There is one other important
consideration for traders:
Bullish
and bearish traders earn money from market movement; i.e., they correctly predict whether the
market rises or falls.
Market-neutral
traders earn money from the
passage of time -- but only when rallies and declines are small
enough that they do not generate a loss that is larger than the positive time
decay. Ideally, the trader waits for Theta to work its magic.
How Does a Trader Make Money from the
Passage of Time?
Options are wasting assets, and (all else being equal) lose value every day.
Theta measures the decay rate.
Traders who buy options must have
their market opinions come true -- sooner rather than later -- or else the
options bought will lose too much of their value while the trader holds onto
the position and waits for his/her prediction to come true.
Option sellers don't have that
problem. They make money every day -- unless the underlying asset (stock, ETF,
index) moves too far in the wrong direction. [Call sellers do not want the
stock price to rally and put sellers do not want the stock price to fall.]
Iron Condors: Risk and Reward
Let's examine a typical iron condor.
Buy 1 INDX Jan 16 '15 1240
call
Sell 1 INDX Jan 16 '15 1230 call (These two options form the call spread;
premium $0.95)
Buy 1 NDX Jan 16 '15 1110
put
Sell 1 INDX Jan 16 '15 1120 put (These two options form the put spread; premium
$1.05)
Let's assume that the premium
collected is $2.00 per share, or $200 for one iron condor.
The Iron Condor Trade
The losing situation: When the stock moves too near the strike price of
one of the options that you sold, its price increases rapidly and the iron
condor loses money. Sometimes there is a good offset: If enough time has
passed, and if the time decay is large enough to offset the entire increase in
value, you may still have a profitable position.
When the trade is not working
If the index (INDX) price nears 1230 (the short call option) or 1120 (the short
put option), the corresponding spread gains significant value and the whole
iron condor position would cost more to exit than the $200 collected when
the trade was originated. As a result, the position is losing money or is
"underwater."