BUDGET 2022 AHEAD ; NIFTY EYE 19000 WHILE SENSEX 63000

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Indian markets rallied over 4 per cent so far in January in the run-up to the Budget 2022. The index is hardly 3 per cent away from hitting its record high above 18604. that was hit back in October 2021. With less than a fortnight remaining for the announcement of the Union Budget for fiscal year 2022-23, here's what the charts indicate for the key benchmark indices in the run-up to the mega financial event on 01 February, 2022.

The sensex Likely target: 62,500 to 63,000 Upside potential: 2.50% to 3% The Sensex has conquered the major resistance of 60,800 and managed to sustain above the same mark. This small sideways movement suggests a possible breakout above the immediate resistance of 61,600 and when that happens, one can expect a sharp surge in the direction of 62, 500

The steady rise above 18000 levels suggests that we are in a pre-budget rally as most of the dips are getting bought into. Hence, investors are advised to sit tight and maintain their positions.

We are in a Pre-budget rally. The trend is broad-based which is a very positive sign for the markets. There is buying across stocks and across sectors. If we go by the trend, we might see the market breaking previous all-time high,”
There are various expectations from the budget, as usual, every year, which includes capital expenditure and infrastructure spending, to help fuel the investment cycle, create employment opportunities and improve domestic demand.

We have collated a list of top 5 trigger points that could give a boost to D-Street in Budget 2022:

Fiscal Deficit:

The path of fiscal trajectory would be the most important part of the Union Budget 2022-2023 amid the ongoing pandemic situation. Although most analysts see the government maintaining the fiscal deficit path, if the government lowers the fiscal deficit target it could certainly add more strength to markets.

Any encouraging step which might give a clear path to lower fiscal deficit will be an important trigger for markets.

Owing to the current fragile status of the economy, government support is still needed to sustain the ongoing economic momentum. Hence, the government may not opt for an aggressive fiscal consolidation path.

Given a sharp rise in GST collection and higher advance taxes, the government may find some cushion in actual fiscal deficit in FY22 despite revenue loss due to cuts in fuel excise duties, higher subsidies and a rise in expenditures due to extension of free food grain scheme until March 2022. The government is likely to maintain its fiscal deficit target at 6.7% for FY22E.

Kickstart Investment Cycle:

Given the need to support economic revival, kick-starting the investment cycle would continue to be high on the policy agenda.

Recent reports indicate that the budgetary allocation on capital expenditure could be around Rs. 6.5 trillion in 2022-23, up by close to 20% as compared to Rs. 5.5 trillion (26% up from 2019-20) in 2021-22.

Further, sustained focus towards the production-linked incentive (PLI) and National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) schemes, tax incentives for investments in Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs), and continued thrust towards investments in Agri infrastructure such as cold storage, warehousing, etc. are likely to be seen in upcoming Budget.

Notably, so far, private investments remain sluggish in the country, which is of utmost importance to sustain ongoing recovery. Therefore, the government may influence private companies to expedite capacity expansion program.

Presently, the private sector is operating at below 70% CAPEX cycle and certain incentive to boost capex expenditure by the private sector would be a big positive for markets.

Simultaneously clarity on reducing the fiscal deficit would also be keenly watched. The government needs to increase investments through FDI, plan for Asset Monetisation and disinvestments to cover the fiscal deficit.

Change in Tax Structure:

A change in tax structure will give a good boost to markets because more disposable in the hands of people will boost consumption.

“Incentives to support domestic personal consumption may include higher standard deduction and Leave Travel Concession cash vouchers for central government employees to support domestic travel.

on the direct tax front, if the government does some tweaks to the structure or with the various sub-limits, which increases disposable income for the tax-payer, it can be a good positive.

Divestment:

Divestment revenue may be Rs1.75tn in FY23 despite the shortfall in FY22. although we anticipate slippage in the divestment target for FY22.

“We are factoring in the divestment of ~Rs1tn in FY22, assuming the LIC divestment goes through.

Sectors in Focus:

we expect that the Sectors that are linked to the economy, consumption, automobile, as well as banking and financial services are likely to do well,.

It is imperative for the Centre to take all necessary measures to sustain the ongoing economic recovery. “The government may maintain its focus on the development of infrastructure (roads, water, and affordable housing) that would give the economy a much-needed earnings/ employment stimulus.

Further, much needed support for MSME and rural economy may also result in higher incomes and job creation, which should aid sectors like automobile, cement and consumers.

The BFSI, infrastructure, Real Estate, Construction, and Energy (especially green energy) are some sectors, which may be in focus in the upcoming Budget 2022.